Jobs in Africa and the growth dilemma

Alexis’ point of view

The World Bank’s forecasts for the global economy for next year were full of good news for African countries. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa It is expected to accelerate this year and nextFiscal revenues have improved in most parts of the region, and many countries are expected to benefit from higher commodity prices.

This is the good news. But dig a little deeper, and more troubling details emerge: economic expansion is not keeping pace with population growth, and the gap in living standards with the rest of the world appears to be widening. The region is already home to more than 70% of the world’s population living in extreme poverty, and the expected growth in real per capita income is lower than in other emerging markets.

It’s all very familiar. It reminds me of the optimism surrounding the “Africa Renaissance” narrative – a loose theory, He was drafted in early 2010which I, like many others, He wrote about it at the time. He predicted that the combination of rising government revenues and rapid population growth would lead to a broader distribution of wealth that would expand the middle class in many countries.

Instead, the commodity super cycle has ended, and the richest people in the continent’s largest economies have become even richer, while many young people have found themselves struggling to find work. South Africa, One of the most unequal societies in the worldis a classic example of this problem.

This lack of job creation has very real consequences that go beyond the economy. Political unrest in a number of countries last year – including Kenya and Madagascar – was caused by a lack of opportunities for young people. Policymakers across the continent must pay attention to the realistic employment picture underpinning growth projections, and ensure that past mistakes are not repeated.